Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 22.958354 24.976329 27.152873 29.685595 32.565248 35.753476 39.572477
2026-01-11 19.948636 22.732944 25.944461 29.965172 34.925461 40.927733 48.872131
2026-01-18 17.527376 20.699172 24.555003 29.678368 36.451874 45.321313 58.212489
2026-01-25 15.789205 19.197323 23.524816 29.575003 38.079422 50.056798 69.122641
2026-02-01 14.467559 18.024317 22.710396 29.558713 39.729996 55.062526 81.745754
2026-02-08 13.373500 17.006009 21.944428 29.445033 41.147400 59.933991 95.586860
2026-02-15 12.461733 16.128102 21.250206 29.299953 42.433561 64.800347 111.019445
2026-02-22 11.681606 15.351927 20.603652 29.112749 43.575129 69.613847 128.131382
2026-03-01 11.056489 14.736818 20.120992 29.099248 44.971790 75.169946 149.211395
2026-03-08 10.516855 14.198197 19.694215 29.106976 46.379955 81.057382 173.992262
2026-03-15 10.232513 14.013119 19.787517 29.983215 49.524621 91.376728 216.945477
2026-03-22 9.725461 13.449149 19.226363 29.645919 50.242706 96.490385 247.864210
2026-03-29 9.302158 12.998951 18.832145 29.599414 51.626233 103.823881 293.470926
2026-04-05 8.970791 12.672067 18.615825 29.858392 53.719752 113.735173 360.194467
2026-04-12 8.570836 12.209924 18.135177 29.562882 54.551569 120.602712 422.942994
2026-04-19 8.236731 11.833703 17.772397 29.454743 55.799371 129.200142 508.885211
2026-04-26 7.944468 11.508092 17.472186 29.435724 57.261025 139.113898 623.673426
2026-05-03 7.661038 11.180382 17.143495 29.321225 58.472144 148.804079 763.215152
2026-05-10 7.394862 10.866698 16.817371 29.176225 59.585391 158.748562 939.807794
2026-05-17 7.142405 10.562805 16.488130 28.989725 60.562215 168.757666 1163.200441
2026-05-24 6.930596 10.317485 16.250198 28.976088 62.019037 181.568848 1502.692346
2026-05-31 6.735511 10.091062 16.032272 28.983656 63.548102 195.707050 1992.967288
2026-06-07 6.657510 10.064448 16.189387 29.854560 67.818456 225.662280 3313.859724